Today was primary day in Washington State. Polls closed at 8pm PDT and voters went to the polls to vote in a wacky primary that narrowed the fields of all statewide elections down to the two top vote getters for the November general. So what that means is that we're going to see mini-general proxy election results in both WA-08 between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner and in the gubernatorial race between sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi.
If you haven't been following Matt Stoller's on the ground coverage over at Open Left you should. Tonight, he's liveblogging results.
You can find them streaming at the WA Secretary of State website HERE.
So far, as of 8:42pm, after Reichert's home county of Pierce County reported, Reichert is ahead of Darcy by just 3 points.
Dave Reichert 47.27
Darcy Burner 44.27
Notably, Reichert can't break 50%, and only barely did so in his home county. The sitting congressman in a low turnout election where the Republicans are the ones motivated to GOTV to avenge Gregoire's narrow win over Rossi can't break 50%. This I think speaks to the enthusiasm gap that Darcy has over Reichert, her excellent GOTV program as well as the fact that she's the only one on the air in the district.
But the numbers can still move as absentee ballots, of which there are many in Washington State, still have yet to be counted. I'll update as results continue to come in.
Update [2008-8-20 0:8:26 by Todd Beeton]:One thing that seems to bode well for Darcy: while the candidates are not listed by party affiliation, they are listed by what party they "prefer" and so far tonight, the "prefers Democratic Party" candidates have a slight majority with 50.03%.
I had to make a prediction, so there it is now.
We know Obama likes Daschle, we know Daschle was vetted, and we know he has a speaker slot on Wed. We even know he's floated as a potential CoS in the WH. It makes sense too, of the whole VP process we've been watching unfold for Obama.
What do you think of an Obama/Daschle ticket?
What Daschle has said this week about the VP slot:
Daschle said, “It’s clear that there are certain candidates who would improve the chances” of the campaign in certain states. But, he added, that he’s advised Obama to make his decision primarily on two factors. “Pick somebody first that can take your job if you’re not here,” Daschle said. “And, second, somebody for whom you have good personal chemistry because you’re going to work together for the next eight years so you might as well like it.”
Update [2008-8-19 23:55:14 by Jerome Armstrong]: I missed this at the end of last week, but Markos also is picking Daschle. He points back to a Trapper John prediction of it on July 30th. Now, Trapper John couldn't have been more wrong, given the last three weeks of McCain gains, in his summation of where Obama's candidacy stands against McCain, but his logic for why Daschle is still sound.
What's up tonight?
Video: "Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya."
I'll take him at his word. He goes golfing...
Obama supporter BTD on TL:
Haha, jeralyn had her graphic ready:
I'd agree with her assessment of how its going to happen:
Phillip Butler, one of the men John McCain served with and was a POW with in Vietnam (although McCain got there 2 years later than Butler and so endured 2 fewer years of torture), has written a scathing editorial titled "Why I Will Not Vote For John McCain." I agree with Matt Stoller:
Put this POW in an ad
Butler begins:
As some of you might know, John McCain is a long-time acquaintance of mine that goes way back to our time together at the U.S. Naval Academy and as Prisoners of War in Vietnam. He is a man I respect and admire in some ways. But there are a number of reasons why I will not vote for him for President of the United States.
As for the reasons Butler won't vote for John McCain, the following four paragraphs lay them out, the first of which will sound familiar.
I furthermore believe that having been a POW is no special qualification for being President of the United States. The two jobs are not the same, and POW experience is not, in my opinion, something I would look for in a presidential candidate.Most of us who survived that experience are now in our late 60's and 70's. Sadly, we have died and are dying off at a greater rate than our non-POW contemporaries. We experienced injuries and malnutrition that are coming home to roost. So I believe John's age (73) and survival expectation are not good for being elected to serve as our President for 4 or more years.
I can verify that John has an infamous reputation for being a hot head. He has a quick and explosive temper that many have experienced first hand. Folks, quite honestly that is not the finger I want next to that red button.
It is also disappointing to see him take on and support Bush's war in Iraq, even stating we might be there for another 100 years. For me John represents the entrenched and bankrupt policies of Washington-as-usual. The past 7 years have proven to be disastrous for our country.
While the Obama campaign should at the very least encourage this guy to speak out against John McCain if not actually put him in an ad, one wonders how quickly Obama will distance himself from Butler, if Obama's treatment of Wes Clark's somewhat similar comments were any indication. The beauty of this attack on McCain, as well as Clark's, is that it goes directly to his strengths. In the meantime, all year Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton took every opportunity to reinforce McCain's strengths ("I honor his service" blah blah blah) instead of undermining them.
Nate Silver puts this traditional reluctance of Democrats to go after Republicans' strengths in frustrating context.
But it's worth remembering that McCain won the Republican primaries in large part because the other candidates were so deferential to him. Rudy Giuliani praised McCain incessantly during the debates of last summer, at which point McCain's campaign was in tatters and didn't seem like much of a threat. But guess where Rudy's supporters went once McCain won New Hampshire?The Republicans, of course, have no such inhibitions when it comes to Democrats, which is why they went right at Al Gore's strengths, and right at John Kerry's strengths, and are going right at Barack Obama's strengths -- and, importantly, did so early in those respective campaigns. It's one of the big reasons that they win elections.
Indeed.
MyDD will have all 4 of its bloggers at the DNCC convention. I'll be getting in on Sat morn, and not leaving till Friday next, a first-in last-out sorta fun. The DNC added more speakers (below the fold).
For those following along and marking off names as they get named to speak, "On Wednesday, August 27th, new speakers addressing the theme of Securing America's Future include Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley."
Yes, it is a bit strange to name the night the same as Wes Clark's PAC, and not have him involved in speaking about that issue... but he's not, and there you have it.
It has been announced that Gore is speaking on Thursday. The only ones left, whom are talked about as VP but are not yet named to speak thus far, are Kaine and Dodd, both of whom we know, were vetted. So that's the poll below.
Update [2008-8-19 17:15:27 by Jerome Armstrong]: Kaine is speaking on Thur night, he and Gore are speaking before Obama.
Let the Doddmania begin! Long live the DoddSquad!!
Just back to LA, catching up here but I saw some of Barack's VFW speech on the plane where I was pleased to see him get tough with McCain, particularly this passage:
But one of the things that we have to change in this country is the idea that people can't disagree without challenging each other's character and patriotism. I have never suggested that Senator McCain picks his positions on national security based on politics or personal ambition. I have not suggested it because I believe that he genuinely wants to serve America's national interest. Now, it's time for him to acknowledge that I want to do the same.Let me be clear: I will let no one question my love of this country. I love America, so do you, and so does John McCain.
Barack proves with this speech that taking the high road and getting tough with McCain are not mutually exclusive. More of this, please, Senator.
TPM's video of it is below:
Taking on the System is a book that I have been waiting on for a long time -- and not just because I have been hearing about it from it from its more nascent stages here in Berkeley from kos, who gets full billing as Markos Moulitsas Zúniga on the book's cover.
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