http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

Take a look there and explain to me where her +50k is coming from. Keep in mind RCP's "with FL & MI" gives 0 to Obama for the uncommitted.

So Hillary is only ahead at all if:

(1) You count MI/FL but don't count uncommitted
(2) You don't add in estimates for IA/NV/ME/WA